Much has been written on the prospects for Australia鶹ýӳs coalbed methane industry (CBM, called coal seam gas in Australia) and many billions of dollars has already been invested. But at least one , from business news site MarketWatch, argues, it may not all be plain sailing as the world鶹ýӳs two largest economies 鶹ýӳ the US and China 鶹ýӳ start to exploit the enormous reserves of shale gas both are sitting on.
鶹ýӳA few years ago we all thought the US would be a net importer of gas 鶹ýӳ how wrong could we have been,鶹ýӳ said Simon Powell, head of Asian oil and gas at CLSA in Hong Kong, speaking to MarketWatch. 鶹ýӳThe US could become a meaningful exporter in the next five years. The question is how big? North America is a meaningful threat to Australia鶹ýӳs aspirations,鶹ýӳ he said.
The other threat is China, which as both CBM and shale reserves. 鶹ýӳWe鶹ýӳve all been shocked at how much shale the US fields have spat out [but] China might be sitting on a shale reserve that makes the US shale reserve look small,鶹ýӳ Powell said. 鶹ýӳIf the Chinese find out they have a lot of shale, you could see the Chinese say [to Australia]: Thanks a lot, we found the mother of all shale reserves, we don鶹ýӳt need you anymore.鶹ýӳ
The Australian CBM industry also faces domestic challenges including a national skills shortage that is pushing up costs and delaying projects throughout the country鶹ýӳs natural resource sector. There has been an increase in environmental and popular opposition to CBM drilling.
鶹ýӳLNG plants are very complex, high-end pieces of kit. Are there enough electricians to build all these things? Is there really enough gas [in the Queensland fields] for all the trains that are on the drawing board, and will the farmers let them dig it up?鶹ýӳ Powell asked.
So, all is not certain. But don鶹ýӳt count out Australian yet. China still has a long way to go in developing its unconventional resources, and it鶹ýӳs not completely clear whether the US government will actually allow exports of LNG. The US Department of Energy is yet to make a decision on the matter, which is becoming increasingly political. Lawmakers from both the House of Representatives and Senate have raised concerns that LNG exports could raise domestic gas prices and hurt manufacturing industries that rely on natural gas.